TrendForce forecasts a significant increase in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) prices for Q4 2024, while general DRAM prices are expected to remain flat. The rise in HBM’s market share is likely to push average DRAM prices up by 8% to 13%.
Despite an 8% to 13% increase in DRAM prices in Q3, the market is anticipated to stagnate in Q4 due to reduced consumer demand and increased supply from Chinese manufacturers. Samsung Electronics, facing delays in its 8-layer HBM3E production for NVIDIA, saw a 12.8% drop in Q3 operating profit to 9.1 trillion won, largely due to challenges in its Device Solutions division.
Samsung’s competitors, such as SK hynix, have begun mass production of 12-layer HBM3E, aiming to supply NVIDIA by Q1 2025. The growing demand for HBM, driven by advancements in AI, highlights the urgency for Samsung to expedite its entry into this market.
TrendForce predicts HBM’s share of total DRAM revenue to grow from 8% in 2023 to 21% in 2024, with a projection to exceed 30% by 2025. The 12-layer HBM3E is expected to lead the market in bit demand.
On October 14, local time, data from South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT showed that boosted by record semiconductor sales, South Korea’s ICT (Information and Communication Technology) exports in September 2024 increased by 24% year-on-year to 22.36 billion USD(about 160 billion RMB), marking the 11th consecutive month of growth and the second-highest monthly figure on record.
The semiconductor sector led the way with exports totaling $13.63 billion USD, a 36.3% year-on-year surge and a new record high. Memory chip exports, in particular, saw a dramatic 60.7% year-on-year increase, amounting to $8.72 billion USD, which is nearly a 20% rise from the previous month. System semiconductor exports also grew, climbing 5.2% year-on-year to $4.37 billion USD.
The Ministry attributed the significant growth in memory semiconductor exports to robust demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-value-added products.
Samsung Electronics is reportedly reducing its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production target by over 10%, dropping from an initial plan of 200,000 units per month to 170,000 by the end of 2025. This follows delays in mass production for key customers and a more cautious investment strategy.
In response to challenges, Samsung plans to enhance its competitiveness by deploying R&D staff directly to factories to boost collaboration with production teams.
Previously, Samsung aimed for 140,000-150,000 units per month by the end of 2024 and 200,000 by 2025. However, the company’s 2025 capacity target has been revised from 135-140 billion GB to around 120 billion GB due to longer-than-expected quality testing for HBM3E products.
An industry source mentioned that Samsung will slow down equipment investments due to sluggish demand and will reconsider further investments after starting mass production for NVIDIA.
In response to growing market demand, Nanya Technology has decided to allocate 15% of its production capacity to DDR5 memory chips starting in Q4 2024。 This strategic shift will see an increase in DDR5 output from December, with some DDR3 and DDR4 production being phased out to optimize the product mix.
Nanya’s 10nm second-generation (1B) technology is currently supporting the mass production of 8Gb DDR4 and 16Gb DDR5, with plans to introduce LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 products in 2025。 Although the initial production costs for DDR5 are higher, the company anticipates that improved yields will make DDR5 more cost-effective than 20nm DDR4 by mid-Q1 2025.
The company initiated wafer production in September, focusing on the rollout of new-generation products to satisfy increasing demand. Nanya Technology aims for DDR5 to account for 30–50% of total bit production as yields improve and more production capacity shifts to the new process。 This move is part of a broader industry trend where leading memory manufacturers are converting capacity towards high bandwidth memory (HBM), DDR5, and advanced processes, which will impact the inventory levels of conventional DDR4, LPDDR4, and DDR3 DRAM products.
Wolfspeed, a leading silicon carbide technology manufacturer, has been awarded a $750 million subsidy by the U.S. Department of Commerce under the CHIPS Act to support the construction of a new silicon carbide (SiC) wafer manufacturing facility in North Carolina. This subsidy is part of a broader $2.5 billion funding package that includes additional private investment and anticipated tax credits .
The company has secured an extra $750 million in financing from a consortium of investors led by Apollo Global Management, Baupost Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company, and Capital Group. Wolfspeed also expects to receive approximately $1 billion in cash tax refunds from the IRS over the next few years due to the advanced manufacturing tax credit under Section 48D of the CHIPS Act .
These funds will be instrumental in Wolfspeed’s $6 billion expansion plan, which includes expanding the John Palmour Silicon Carbide Manufacturing Center in Siler City, North Carolina, and the M-Line West at the Mohawk Valley Fab in Utica, New York. This expansion aims to increase the production of 200mm silicon carbide wafers by ten times and boost equipment manufacturing capacity by five times .
Wolfspeed’s silicon carbide chips are used by major clients such as General Motors and Mercedes-Benz for their energy efficiency in applications like power transfer in electric vehicles. The material also plays a crucial role in renewable energy systems, industrial applications, and AI . The investment not only enhances Wolfspeed’s position in SiC production but also strengthens the U.S. supply chain’s resilience and competitiveness .
Japanese companies are gearing up for the mass production of gallium nitride (GaN) power semiconductor devices designed for electric vehicles (EVs), which could result in longer driving ranges. However, the high cost of these advanced materials remains a significant challeng.
GaN is emerging as a competitive material against silicon carbide (SiC) in the next generation of power semiconductor devices for EVs. These devices are crucial for controlling the flow of electricity and are being developed to be more efficient and less power-intensive than traditional silicon-based components.
The move towards GaN by Japanese manufacturers signifies a strategic bet on the future of EV technology, where power efficiency and sustainability are key drivers.
