01. TrendForce Predicts DDR4 Prices May Decline in Q4 2025
On July 2, TrendForce stated that the rising prices of DDR4 memory, which have been increasing since the beginning of 2025, are likely to peak in the fourth quarter and begin to decline. The price surge is attributed to suppliers reducing production and market hoarding behavior, but this growth momentum is unlikely to continue through the end of the year. As prices enter a high range, suppliers are gradually releasing inventory, and supply conditions are expected to improve step by step in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, DDR5 prices remain relatively stable, with a projected moderate sequential growth of 3% to 8% in the second and third quarters of 2025.
02. Foldable Phones Drive Breakthrough in Driver IC Industry
On July 3, due to the end of China's home appliance subsidy policy, demand for panels in TVs and laptops declined, creating uncertainty for the driver IC industry's development in the third quarter. However, foldable phones equipped with OLED screens, which require more driver ICs per unit, have opened up new opportunities for the driver IC design industry. The foldable phone market is expanding rapidly, with shipment growth rates exceeding 30% annually from 2024 to 2025, driving up demand for OLED driver ICs. Compared to traditional phones, foldable phones usually come with both primary and secondary screens, higher resolutions, and faster refresh rates. The number of DDICs per unit has increased to over 2 to 3, and the unit prices are also higher, which helps driver IC manufacturers to boost their average selling prices and revenue scales.
03. TI Initiates a Wave of Price Hikes
On July 2, Texas Instruments (TI) launched a price adjustment storm, triggering a chain reaction in the semiconductor industry. TI initiated a global price increase plan covering over 3,300 part numbers in June 2025. The pricing strategy shows structural differences, reflecting the semiconductor industry's strategic shift from price wars to profit recovery. The price increases are distributed in a pyramid-like pattern: about 9% of the part numbers have increases exceeding 100%, mostly for discontinued or low-profit products; 55% of the part numbers have increases between 15% and 30%; and 30% of the part numbers have increases below 15%. Signal chain products are the core of the price increases. For example, some models of ADCs and operational amplifiers have increases exceeding 100%, while the increases for isolation chips, LDOs, and DC-DC converters are around 20%.
04. NXP Strengthens Its Local Supply Chain in China
On July 3, according to Jiemian News, Mireille Hildebrandt, Executive Vice President of NXP Semiconductors and General Manager of NXP China, stated that China is not only a major market for NXP but also represents globally leading technology. Since entering China in 1986, NXP now has 6,000 employees, including 1,600 engineers, with six R&D centers, 16 office locations, and one packaging and testing factory in China. In response to the supply chain security challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies and export controls, NXP has proposed a localization strategy of "in China, for China, and for the world," and established a China division in January this year. At this conference, NXP unveiled chips specifically designed for Chinese customers and announced cooperation projects with domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers. In addition, NXP is further strengthening its supply chain in China, planning to build its entire product line, from front-end to back-end, within the Chinese market.
05. U.S. PC Market: Strong Q1 Growth, But Full-Year Momentum May Weaken
On July 1, Canalys data showed that U.S. PC shipments grew by 15% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 16.9 million units. Due to manufacturers increasing shipments in response to tariff policies and the resulting increase in channel inventory, there is a need to clear inventory later on. Meanwhile, consumer spending is weakening, and the full-year PC shipment growth rate for 2025 is expected to be only 2%. After the discontinuation of Windows 10 services in October 2025, a large number of system upgrades will be initiated, and shipment growth is expected to rebound to 4% in 2026. In 2025, corporate demand for PCs is expected to remain strong, with commercial PC shipments projected to grow by 8%, while consumer market PC shipments are expected to decline by 4%.
06. TrendForce: Two Factors Lead to Slight Downward Revision of AI Server Shipments to 24.3% Annual Growth
TrendForce's latest research indicates that large North American cloud service providers (CSPs) remain the main demand drivers in the AI server market, with robust demand also supported by secondary data centers and sovereign cloud projects. However, due to geopolitical factors and U.S. export bans, demand in Mainland China is restricted. As a result, TrendForce has slightly revised down the global AI server shipment growth to 24.3% this year. Dynamics of the top five North American CSPs:
Microsoft: Focusing on AI investments and suppressing general-purpose server purchases, mainly using NVIDIA GPU solutions, with slow progress on its own ASIC development, and the Maia solution is expected to ramp up in 2026.
Meta: Increased demand for general-purpose servers due to new data center launches, using AMD platforms, actively deploying AI servers, and MTIA chip shipments are expected to double in 2026.
Google: Benefiting from sovereign cloud projects and the launch of data centers in Southeast Asia, increasing server demand, with its own TPU v6e already ramping up.
AWS: Its self-developed Trainium v2 is the main force, with Trainium v3 development already initiated and expected to be mass-produced in 2026, and its own ASIC shipments are expected to double in 2025.
Oracle: Focusing on purchasing AI servers and IMDB servers, actively building AI server infrastructure, and increasing demand for NVIDIA GB Rack NVL72.